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Economy
Analysts reluctant to predict January Inflation
Analysts are holding off on forecasting Nigeria’s January 2025 inflation rate due to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The rebasing, which sets 2024 as the new base year, adds new items to the composition of the inflation basket to reflect the consumption pattern of citizens. The NBS planned to release the rebased inflation report for December 2024 at the end of January 2025, but failed to do so. Without a clear base from the revised index, analysts say making accurate predictions is impossible.
Despite raising interest rates six consecutive times in 2024, inflation surged to 34.8% in December. The rebased CPI index may result in lower inflation because the weighting of food, which accounts for the majority of household spending and contributes more than half of the CPI basket, has been cut to 40.1% from 51.8%.
Before the rebasing, analysts expected inflation to remain elevated through mid-2025 before easing, potentially closing the year at 28%. This forecast was based on anticipated exchange rate stability (₦1,550–₦1,650/$), base effects, and a waning impact from fuel subsidy removal. However, the rebased index could upend these projections.
The rebased CPI index could temper inflation readings, but without clarity on its full impact, analysts remain cautious. In the meantime, expectations lean toward a hold stance from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), regardless of inflation’s movement.
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Banking
Kenyan commercial banks to lower lending rate as Central Bank threatens fines
On February 14, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) gave us a masterclass on power play. After months of resisting the CBK’s four consecutive cuts to the benchmark interest rate, commercial banks are now hastily adjusting their lending rates following the apex bank’s threat of imposing daily fines for non-compliance.
The CBK’s intensified pressure has left Kenyan banks scrambling to lower their rates, marking a significant shift in their stance. Despite the central bank’s repeated efforts to ease borrowing costs, many banks had delayed passing on these benefits to customers, resulting in a widening gap between the CBK rate (10.75%) and actual lending rates. Now, faced with the prospect of hefty penalties, banks are finally falling in line.
The CBK is enforcing stricter measures. Banks that fail to adjust could face fines of KES 20 million ($154,619) or three times the monetary gain from higher rates. Additionally, bank officials risk personal fines of up to KES 1 million ($7,730). Leading lenders—including KCB, Equity, Cooperative Bank, I&M, and DTB—have responded by slashing rates by one to four percentage points. Equity Bank, in particular, has made three reductions in six months, positioning itself as the most responsive to CBK’s directives.
Loans could become more affordable for borrowers. However, with the average lending rate still at 17.22%—an eight-year high—access to credit remains a challenge. The high rate of non-performing loans (NPLs) could leave banks wary of borrowers, leading to more scrutiny during borrowing processes. While the intense due diligence could solve the problem of bad loans, it will also likely reduce borrowing activity, taking the goal of stimulating economic participation further away from the apex bank.
Yet, it is a good thing. The rate of compliance—although forced—signals that banks are willing to set aside differing opinions, and work with the regulator to achieve a common goal.
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Fintech
Airtel Money is making a play to win the Kenyan fintech and telecoms market
Airtel Money is making an aggressive play for Kenya’s mobile money market by refunding 100% of bank transfer fees as airtime. Unlike past promotions, this airtime won’t expire, making it a strong incentive for users to move money through Airtel instead of its dominant rival, Safaricom’s M-Pesa.
This isn’t Airtel’s first attempt at using refunds to lure customers. In 2023, its “Rudishiwa Transaction Fee” programme, which refunded withdrawal charges as airtime, helped push its market share from 6.6% to 7.6%. Now, by extending the model to bank transfers, Airtel is hoping to build on that momentum.
But will this strategy work? Mobile money dominance isn’t just about pricing—it’s about habit and accessibility. While Safaricom’s M-Pesa remains the default for most Kenyans, Airtel has been expanding its agent network and bundling financial incentives with mobile services, such as its new “Smarta Bundles.” The question is whether customers see enough value in switching or if M-Pesa’s extensive reach and convenience still outweigh Airtel’s price incentives.
The real test will be Safaricom’s response. If M-Pesa holds firm, Airtel could gain ground among cost-conscious users. But if Safaricom counters with its own pricing adjustments, Airtel’s competitive edge could be short-lived. Either way, the battle for Kenya’s mobile money market is heating up, and customers stand to benefit.
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CRYPTO TRACKER
The World Wide Web3
Source:
|
Coin Name |
Current Value |
Day |
Month |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin |
$96,259 |
– 1.29% |
– 0.12% |
| Ether |
$2,666 |
– 1.16% |
+ 1.15% |
 XRP |
$2.69 |
– 3.37% |
+ 12.19% |
| Solana |
$183.36 |
– 6.13% |
– 9.14% |
* Data as of 06:15 AM WAT, February 17, 2025.
Events
- The ATCG Abuja 2025 Convening, themed “From Potential to Practice—Accelerating AfCFTA Implementation for African Tech and Creative Sectors” will be held from February 24-25, 2025. A centrepiece of the programme will be a ministerial roundtable featuring Nigeria’s Ministers of Communication, Innovation & Digital Economy, and Trade & Industry. During this two-day event, anticipate game-changing insights, powerful partnerships, and high-energy discussions that challenge boundaries and unlock new opportunities across the continent. If you work in the technology and creative sectors in Africa and wish to create new business opportunities by leveraging pan-African digital trade, then this event is for you. Don’t just witness Africa’s digital transformation—be a part of it! Register here.
- The Africa Tech Summit in Nairobi, Kenya taking place 12th & 13th Feb 2025 will once again provide unrivaled insight, networking and business opportunities for African and international investors and tech leaders who want to drive growth across the Continent. The event connects 2000+ industry leaders, 1000+ companies, and 160+ speakers via four tracks plus workshops, expo and multiple fantastic networking opportunities. Tickets are on sale now.
- Join Africa’s creative innovators, entrepreneurs & leaders at The Omniverse Africa Summit, at Landmark Event Centre, between 25 – 28 Feb 2025. Explore transformative tech, business & sustainable growth. Register now.
- GITEX AFRICA 3rd edition is NOW OPEN for registration. Africa’s largest tech and start-up event will be held from 14-16 April 2025 in Marrakech, Morocco. Attend to see the leading brands in tech, and the most innovative startups, and network with tech leaders, investors, speakers and government delegations from across Africa and across the globe. Register here.
Written by: Faith Omoniyi & Emmanuel Nwosu
Edited by: Timi Odueso & Olumuyiwa Olowogboyega
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I am the CEO of 9JAGISTLAND.My name is Adedeji Timothy and my co-owner is Oyekola Damilare.This blog is born out of our passion to educating to people in all aspect of internet life.We are enthusiastic about writing posts and articles online.
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